About

Fernando Giannotti is a writer, economist, and comedian from Dayton, Ohio. He is a member of the comedy troupe '5 Barely Employable Guys.' He holds a B.A. in Economics and History and an M.S. in Finance from Vanderbilt University as well as a B.A. in the Liberal Arts from Hauss College. A self-labeled doctor of cryptozoology, he continues to live the gonzo-transcendentalist lifestyle and strives to live an examined life.

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Immigration Reform

Immigration Reform

            Current United States immigration policy must address two primary areas of concern; one area of long-term structural importance to United States immigration policy and the other area of a stand-alone, one off incident that achieves most attention and news coverage. The first immigration policy area of concern that is of long-term structural importance to the United States deals with the kind of immigrants our system attracts and allows to immigrate.  Our current immigration policy does not place enough emphasis on attracting and retaining educated and highly skilled immigrants and foreign students studying in the United States.  The current policy’s lack of ability to attract and retain educated and skilled immigrants places the United States at a competitive disadvantage in comparison to other developed countries with more progressive immigration systems such as Canada and Australia.  Even if the United States is able to educate its own citizens to meet the requirements of a more technology based economy, which it is not currently doing, the results from education will take ten years or more to manifest.  The United States needs educated and skilled immigrants for the economy to thrive in the short and intermediate terms until gains in our education system can take effect. The second immigration policy area of concern is dealing with the approximately 12 million people who have entered and now reside in the United States illegally.  While these 12 million people are a side issue to long-term structural immigration policy reform, their situation has captivated and occupied the lion share of media coverage on any immigration debate and become the all-encompassing center of any proposed immigration debate in the United States federal government.  Without addressing the issues of the 12 million people illegally residing in the United States, enacting long-term structural reform that will allow the United States to compete internationally for the workers its economy needs will not be possible.  The United States must provide a solution that brings these 12 million illegal residents out of the shadows, allows them to contribute to the mainstream economy, and address the cause of the massive 12 million illegal resident problems. 

            With all of the considerations discussed in the previous paragraph, I advocate a two pronged immigration reform policy.  The first prong is aimed at long-term structural change to the United States immigration system in order to attract more educated and highly skilled immigrants from around the world.  The second prong is to bring the current 12 million illegal residents out of the shadows, contributing to the United States economy, and to provide a solution to the cause of the phenomena that allowed them to enter and reside illegally in the United States. In order to attract educated and highly skilled immigrants to the United States I advocate that the United States place a clear emphasis on these immigrants in our immigration system and make our policies more like those of Canada and Australia who are attracting more educated and highly skilled immigrants per capita than the United States.  The American economy has changed greatly from the late 1800s to our present time, the type of jobs our economy requires have changed along with our economy.  The United States economy in decades past had a much greater capacity to absorb and provide jobs for uneducated and unskilled immigrants, currently the United States economy has a relatively lower ability to absorb and provide jobs for uneducated and unskilled immigrants, our immigration system and policy should reflect these changes in economic conditions.  And finally, I advocate a policy that legalizes all of the 12 million illegal residents without a criminal record currently in the United States as legal guest workers and provides those who wish with the option of a path to citizenship, those who choose not to become citizens may remain as legal guest workers.  A path to citizenship for the 12 million illegal residents in the United States will not be a broader policy initiative; it will be a one off policy that applies specifically to the 12 million illegals currently residing in the United States and will not be extended to future individuals who illegally gain entry and reside in the United States. 
            The United States was founded by immigrants from Europe and enriched throughout the ensuing years by immigrants from every corner of the world.[1]  The United States for much of its history had a largely agrarian economy which was bolstered and enabled by large areas of cheap or free land for internal migrants and immigrants to cultivate.[2] Americans expanded westward at an incredible rate.  Farming and farm work at that time were types of work that did not require a formal education or highly trained skills.  Many immigrants had been farmers or farm laborers in their countries of origin, continuing their profession in North American with perhaps more and higher quality land.  Farming also is a profession in which language skills were not of paramount importance given that farms tend to be more isolated and the work requires minimal collaboration compared to other professions at the time.  A lawyer or salesperson for example must effectively communicate their ideas and what they are selling to the native speaking population, compared to a farmer who mostly toils alone with their family on an isolated plot of land.  Given the availability of land, low education and skill requirements for entry, and lack of language requirements, agriculture was a very attractive profession for many immigrants to the United States.  Given that from the creation of the United States up to the industrial revolution in the late 1800s the majority of the American economy was employed in agriculture, the United States had a very large capacity to absorb large numbers of uneducated and/or unskilled immigrants, being able to provide suitable jobs on which to live on for immigrants. 
            The industrial revolution transformed the American economy, adding new kinds of jobs for uneducated and/or unskilled immigrants.   Millions were able to find work in factories within the metropolitan areas of cities.  Factory jobs provided similar opportunities that farming occupations had previously in American history.  The vast majority of factory jobs required no education and very little if any specific skills.  Performing a specific repetitive task over and over again also comes with few language barriers to entry.  Factory jobs were jobs that not only uneducated, unskilled internal migrants from farms could perform but also uneducated, unskilled immigrants without significant command of the English language could perform as well.  The industrial revolution provided millions of immigrants with occupations in the United States; from Italians to Germans to Eastern Europeans to Chinese to many other types of immigrants.  While urban conditions in immigrant areas would be considered by today’s standards beyond deplorable, the American economy was able to provide suitable jobs for uneducated and unskilled immigrants in sufficient quantities for the United States to absorb large numbers of uneducated and/or unskilled immigrants. 
            In 1950, the economic sector break down of employment in the United States incorporated both agriculture and manufacturing in large proportions, the United States still had the economic capacity to absorb large numbers of uneducated and/or unskilled immigrants.  In 1950 approximately 25% of workers were employed in agriculture and 45% were employed in manufacturing, make a 70% share of Americans employed in either agriculture or manufacturing.  While land had been mostly claimed and utilized, the agricultural industry could still offer large numbers of labor jobs that required very little if any formal education, skills, or English language skills.  The overwhelming number of those employed in manufacturing were employed as workers, occupations that still had very few barriers to entry from education, skills, and language.  Given that 70% of the American economy revolved around agriculture and manufacturing the United States in the 1950s had the ability to absorb large numbers of uneducated and/or unskilled immigrants. 
            Currently agriculture represents between 2% and 3% of the American workforce and manufacturing represents 16% of the workforce.   Combined agriculture and manufacturing, the traditional areas of employment for uneducated and/or unskilled immigrants without English language skills, represent at most, rounded up 20% of the American workforce.  This is a 50% drop in share of the workforce from 1950 for agriculture and manufacturing.  Compared to past economic conditions in American history, agriculture and manufacturing are not industries able to absorb large numbers of immigrants.  With the increased mechanization of the agricultural industry, fewer uneducated and/or unskilled workers are needed, and the workers that the agricultural industry does need are educated workers who can operate increasing complex and computerized machines.  Employment in the manufacturing industry is little different from the agricultural industry.  After decades of outsourcing which saw the manufacturing share of jobs in the US economy shrink drastically, manufacturing jobs are starting to return to the United States, but they are not the manufacturing jobs of previous eras.  Manufacturing is becoming increasing more automated and computerized.  These new manufacturing jobs require those with education and specific skills to operate more automated and computerized manufacturing equipment and factories.  An example of the increased automation and computerization of American factories lies with Nike.  Nike has moved some production of shoes from Vietnam to the United States.  They have not moved to the United States because American labor cost have gone down or because Vietnamese labor costs have risen sharply, they are moving production back to the United States because Nike has developed a machine that can produce the main components of a single show on its own.  Their new machine can perform the jobs that many workers use to perform and without fatigue and greater uniformity.  Nike needs educated workers to operate their new, more complex machine, which is a significant capital expense.  What one gleams from the agricultural and manufacturing employment data is that the agricultural and manufacturing sectors are no longer large enough to provide suitable jobs for large numbers of uneducated and/or unskilled immigrants. 
         Today the United States economy is comprised much less of agricultural and manufacturing jobs.  Jobs and occupations in service industries now employ the majority of Americans.  Service sector jobs require a greater knowledge of the English language and general English proficiency.  Unlike agricultural and manufacturing jobs in past American economic eras, service sector jobs have a language barrier to entry. 
            When one considers the fact that the agricultural and manufacturing sectors comprise a substantially smaller portion of the American workforce, two areas which have historically been the largest providers of jobs to uneducated and/or unskilled immigrants, and the substantial growth of service sector jobs, with their increased language barriers, as a proportion of the American workforce, one irrevocably comes to the conclusion that the United States in 2014 does not have the same capacity to absorb large numbers of uneducated and/or unskilled immigrants lacking English skills as it did in previous eras of large scale immigration.  If immigrants want to find jobs that can support themselves and possible their families, they will need to have knowledge of the English language and be much more educated or skilled than immigrants in the past.  Many politicians who make comparisons to the economic potential of immigrants in past eras of immigration to the United States are often making false comparisons with eras of different economic realities for immigrants.  The United States lack of economic capacity to absorb large numbers of uneducated and/or unskilled immigrants without language skills should be a primary and very powerful motivator towards adopting an immigration system and policies that favor higher proportions of educated and skilled immigrants with knowledge of the English language.  Our immigration system and policies should reflect our economic capacity to provide jobs for incoming immigrants.          
            Canada and Australia have changed their immigration systems to primarily attract and take in a large proportion of educated and highly skilled immigrants with knowledge of English.  These types of immigrants are the most likely to be financially successful in their new countries and by most measures are much better integrated into their receiving societies than other immigrants.  Their financial success means they are substantially less likely to utilize public assistance programs and the overwhelming vast majority contributes more money in taxes than they consume in government benefits and programs.  Compared to other types of immigrants, the educated and highly skilled immigrants are a much better value proposition for the destination country.  Educated and highly skilled immigrants are also more likely to hold liberal and tolerant western views on such topics as women’s rights, religions freedom and the right to offend, freedom of speech, tolerance for other races, and other western values.  Given that they contribute more than they receive from the government and that they are better integrated into societies and culture of their destination countries, educated and skilled immigrants provide a better value to western countries.    
            Currently there is a mismatch in employment in the United States.  Employers are unable to find employees who meet the qualifications for jobs being offered.  In fewer places is this mismatch illustrated in starker contrast than in Silicon Valley.  Silicon Valley, the birthplace and center of the technology industry, is unable to find the quantities of programmers and engineers they require.  Many prominent Silicon Valley executives, such as Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, have personally lobbied the Obama administration to advocate for immigration reform to allow them to hire more qualified programmers and computer engineers as well as making it easier for foreign students studying in the United States to come, stay, and work in the United States.  The tech industry in Silicon Valley needs adequate numbers of qualified workers to continue growing and maintain its position as the leading technology center in the world.  Immigration reform is needed to give Silicon Valley the workers it needs. 
            The United States needs reform to the structure of our immigration system.  If the United States wishes to remain competitive in the world, it must prioritize educated and highly skilled immigrants and admit more educated and highly skilled immigrants than uneducated immigrants without skills.  I propose the United States adopt immigration policies similar to those of Canada and Australia in order to augment the United States economy. 
            The second prong that I have proposed requires finding a solution that allows the 12 million illegal residents in the United States to come out of the shadows and contribute to the American economy and provides a solution for the cause the illegal entrant phenomena, while giving the 12 million illegal residents as many options as possible.
            One must start with the fact that the 12 million illegal residents have gained entry to the United States and barring an extreme outlier event, they are here to stay.  Physically and forcefully removing the entire 12 million people who have illegally gained entry into the United States would be an expensive and draconian process that would not be optimal economically or morally pleasing.  Currently there are no serious[3] proposals in the federal government that involve physically removing and deporting 12 million people.  It would seem that the American people and their elected officials do not wish to separate families and remove members of communities in mass and thus have rejected the idea of mass deportations.  The United States is then left at an impasse; continue with the status quo which involves 12 million people not fully contributing to the United States economy and living lives in the shadows or providing a way to legalize their status in the United States thus allowing them to contribute more fully to the United States economy.  The economic benefits of legalizing the 12 million illegal residents in the United States far exceed the economic benefits in our current status quo.  Without question a legalized status for the 12 million illegal residents is vastly preferable to the current status quo, considering that these 12 million people will remain in the United States whether legalized or not.
            I advocate for a multiple tiered program that legalizes all 12 million illegal residents without criminal records to work and live in the United States, provides a path to United States citizenship for those illegal residents who wish to become citizens, and provides some degree of alleviation for the cause of the illegal resident phenomena so that it can be diminished or wholly avoided in the future.    
            The first tier should be the legalization of the 12 million illegal residents without a criminal record.  I advocate creating a one year registration period, during which those illegally residing in the United States may register with the United States government and if found to not possess a criminal record, will be granted guest worker status in the United States.  Guest worker status will not entail the recipient to American citizenship, but will allow the recipient to legally work and live in the United States.  A guest worker may travel back and forth to their country of origin freely to visit family and make use of the legal banking system to transfer money.  The will pay United States taxes on income earned in the United States and have the same access to public services as legal residents.  Legalizing the 12 million illegal residents who do not possess criminal records will allow them to more fully contribute to the United States economy and will be economically beneficial for the United States.  At the end of the designated one year registration period, any illegal resident who has failed to register with the United States government or has a criminal record will lose the ability to become a guest worker and if discovered will be deported.  Currently the United States has a policy of not pursuing illegal residents past the border[4] and not pursuing illegal migrants who are living illegal in the United States.  After the one year registration period has expired, the policy of United States border and law enforcement will change.  Law enforcement will aggressively pursue illegal migrants past the border conduct investigations into illegal residents who are living in communities throughout the United States.  If discovered these illegal residents will be deported to their country of origin.  The above described policies will be enacted in order to deter future individuals who seek to gain entry illegally to the United States.  These harsh laws are designed to demonstrate that the guest worker status conferred on the current 12 million illegal residents without criminal records is a one-time provision that will not be extended to future illegal residents. 
Giving those of the 12 million illegal residents who do not have a criminal record guest worker status should be part of a larger initiative to reinstate a general guest worker program with Mexico and Central American countries.  Lack of economic growth and general economic stagnation in Mexico coupled with strong economic growth in the United States created significant push and pull factors for mass scale Mexican immigration into the United States from the 1990s to the 2007 financial crisis.  The quantity of Mexicans demanding entry to work in the United States far exceeded the quantity of immigrants the United States was willing to accommodate which created an imbalance which lead many Mexicans who could not enter the United States legally to gain entry illegally.  The economic recession following the 2007 financial crisis combined with stronger economic growth in Mexico has very much eliminated the previous push and pull factors for Mexicans to seek illegal entry into the United States.  Many studies actually show a decrease in the illegal resident population in the United States as many Mexicans choose to return home to Mexico.  While the conditions that created the current12 million illegal resident phenomena in the United States have abated, it is not unreasonable that they may come into being and persist again in the future.  The United States needs to provide a workable solution to prevent another phenomenon of mass numbers of illegal residents. 
I propose the United States reinstall a guest worker program to provide a legal avenue for Mexicans and Central Americans seeking to enter the United States to work but who do not wish to become citizens.  A legal guest worker system will provide a constructive way for the United States to channel the forces causing Mexicans and Central Americans to gain entry to the United States legally or illegally.  A legal guest worker system will give the United States a degree of control over the phenomena of illegal migration by giving would be migrants a legal outlet which the United States retains control over.  A legal guest worker program can also bring economic benefits for the United States economy without the cost of providing services to citizens.  It will allow United States employers to access a ready pool of labor for which they need and American citizens are not able to fill.  The United States government will also gain tax revenue from the work performed by guest workers.   Several countries around the world have utilized guest worker programs successfully, a prime example being Germany.  The German guest worker program has been incredible successful in the filling the labor shortages brought about by decreasing German fertility rates.  Giving Mexicans and Central Americans who want to work in the United States guest worker status instead of citizenship also fits into larger immigration reform aimed at reorienting the United States immigration system towards educated and highly skilled immigrants.  The average Mexican and Central American immigrant is uneducated and unskilled by Mexican and Central American standards, let alone American standards.  The average Mexican and Central American immigrant also poses little if any practical knowledge of the English language.  Compared to substantially more qualified immigrants from other geographic and socio-economic areas who are much more educated, skilled, and possess knowledge of English, Mexican and Central American immigrants are undesirable for the American economy of the present and future.  A guest worker program allows the United States to utilize workers for a the economic needs they are needed for, provide a legal outlet for the pressures encouraging millions of people to seek illegal entry and residence in the United States, as well as complementing an immigration system which seeks to attract educated and highly skilled immigrants with knowledge of English. 
After legalizing those of the current 12 million illegal residents without a criminal record as guest workers, the United States should then provide those who wish, the option of entering into a process that would lead, those who choose to participate, to American citizenship.  After the yearlong registration period has ended and those of the 12 million illegal residents without a criminal record who wanted to register have registered and been awarded guest worker status, another yearlong registration period should be allowed for those with newly granted guest worker status who wish to enter into a process of becoming an American citizen.  As of the time of this writing, members of the Republican and Democratic parties in Congress had agreed on a 13 year time span[5] for a process of obtaining American citizenship for the 12 million illegal immigrants.  Therefore, I propose a 13 year process, for those of the 12 million illegal residents who are granted guest worker status, to become American citizens.  This process towards American citizenship will be entirely optional and each individual will have a year after being granted guest worker status to decide.  If they wish to remain guest workers and legally work in the United States they may retain that guest worker status for the rest of their lives.  Perhaps many who choose guest worker status believe this course the best economically or have a patriotic passion for their country of origin.  Whatever their reason, the decision to become an American citizen is entirely their decision.  After the one year registration period for the American citizenship process has expired, those who choose guest worker status will not be able to reenroll and will not have the option of becoming American citizens.  For those who choose the 13 year process to become American citizens, there will be no option of holding dual citizenship.  Becoming an American citizen through this special citizenship process requires the successful participants to renounce the citizenship of their country of origin and all the rights that country’s citizenship entails.  Whether one chooses to remain a guest worker or chooses the path towards United States citizenship, all of the 12 million illegal residents without criminal records will be legalized, brought out of the shadows, and contribute fully to the United States economy. 
If the United States adopts the course of action described above for the 12 million illegal residents in the United States, the United States will be able to most effectively resolve the unique political situation of the 12 million illegal residents, enabling the United States to address long-term immigration reform.  By providing the 12 million illegal residents without criminal records the option between being a legal guest worker and becoming an American citizen, the United States is allowing the 12 million illegal residents to choose their outcome.  While many elected public servants may disagree with and oppose allowing some of the 12 million illegal residents to become legal guest workers instead of citizens or become citizens instead of guest workers, at the end of the day I believe it best to give those directly affected more options to decide their fate and how they wish to live their lives.  
As a final note on the proposed solutions to the 12 million illegal residents in the United States, increased spending on border security and on law enforcements ability to locate and arrest those who gain illegal entry and illegally reside in the United States will have to accompany these proposals in order to appease certain right wing elements in the United States Congress.  While a waste of the United States’ scarce resources, however increased funding for border security and law enforcement is a political necessity that must accompany the other proposes in order to enact them.  This small inconvenience and waste is worth the benefits of the overall package.                     

               




[1] This statement is not claiming that people did not live and prosper within the geographic limits of the current United States.  Native Americans were the first inhabits of North America.  The United States was derived at its formation on the model of a European nation state.  The original 13 colonies were modeled as extensions of European nation states.  It is solely in reference to origins of the United States under the modern nation state model that predominates the world today and has for the at the very least the past 300 years.
[2] Again it should be noted that a portion of this land was already occupied by Native Americans.  Given the policies and views toward of the federal government and general population at the time to the legality of Native American claims to land, one can consider the vast majority of ‘unsettled’ land open for internal migrants and immigrants.
[3] Placing a large emphasis on the word ‘serious’
[4] The 12 million people illegally residing in the United States come from a wide range of origin countries from around the world.  But we must recognize that the overwhelming vast majority of illegal residents in the United States originate from Mexico and Central America.  Any resolution to the current 12 million illegal resident problem in the United States must take this previously mentioned fact into account.  If in the course of this essay I insinuate or associate illegal residents with Mexico and Central America, it is only in recognition of the majority.
[5] In my opinion, 13 years is a bit long, but given that both relevant political parties have agreed on this number and how rare agreement between these parties has become these days, I will use it for the sake of efficiency.                                

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