About

Fernando Giannotti is a writer, economist, and comedian from Dayton, Ohio. He is a member of the comedy troupe '5 Barely Employable Guys.' He holds a B.A. in Economics and History and an M.S. in Finance from Vanderbilt University as well as a B.A. in the Liberal Arts from Hauss College. A self-labeled doctor of cryptozoology, he continues to live the gonzo-transcendentalist lifestyle and strives to live an examined life.

Sunday, July 27, 2014

National Debt

National Debt

            Most conversations revolving around the United States’ national debt and any plan to pay off the national debt are influenced too heavily by political considerations and do not take into effect enough economic or long-term thinking.  While this is understandable, it is not productive for the United States reducing its debt burdening in an effective, responsible way.  Too often conservatives boldly speak of paying down the national debt within a ten year time span, only made possible with truly draconian spending cuts, while liberals fail to give any significant attention to the United States’ ballooning national debt.  I will make several general proposals that will constitute the basic framework for a plan to responsibility pay off the national debt of the United States within a reasonable time frame[1].
            The United States should set a 30 to 40, possibly even 50, year timeline for paying off our national debt.  By taking 30 or more years the United States will be able to pay off our national debt in regular manageable installments that still give us the financial flexibility to invest in key areas of concern; education and infrastructure for example.  If we were to set a 10 year time span, the payments the United States would have to make would be very large and require truly draconian cuts to public spending that would make any investment in education and infrastructure unfeasible[2].  Liken a payment time frame to a home mortgage an individual may take out in order to purchase a house.  That individual could pay off their house, a rather large sum of money for the vast majority of American citizens, in a ten year time span, but the monthly payments would be oppressive for that individual.  They would not be able to afford to pay for virtually any recreational activity, take a limited vacation, utilize furniture, or have any creature comforts.  The bulk of their income would be dedicated towards making payments for their house.  Comically that individual might be limited to living on inflatable furniture, eating hot dogs, and drinking tang, all that they could afford.  By spreading their mortgage out to 30 years, they are able to make payments on their house and to live a more comfortable life; taking vacations, going to the cinema, attending sporting events, eating a wider range of food, and so on.  By creating a 30 or 40 year plan to pay off our national debt, the United States can make the payments necessary to pay off our national debt and still have the financial flexibility to pay for spending on education and infrastructure.       
            Adopting a logical, credible plan to pay down our national debt is all that is needed to restore what investor confidence the United States lost in the recent political debt ceiling standoff.  The United States was downgraded from its AAA bond rating not for any financial inability to pay off our existing debt, but because of a perceived lack of political will to pass a workable solution to pay off our debt.  While I have my concerns with the rational for the downgrade; mainly that rating agencies are taking an inherently objective problem, does the United States have the ability to pay its debt obligations, and applying a subjective lens, will the United States pay its debt obligation, it is undeniable that the United States has suffered a loss of credibility in the international world.  Simple enacting a credible debt reduction plan will increase the credit rating of the United States.  The United States has the ability to pay off our national debt; the only question is will the United States pay off our national debt.  With the passage of a credible plan, the question is answered.  The United States is not Argentina, who seemingly every decade defaults on their debt obligations and forces investors to take a haircut on their bonds.  Argentina is a country that is not perceived to always honor their debt obligations.  The United States is one of only four countries to never miss a debt payment, along with France, Canada, and Australia.  The United States is well respected in the international community and the international community has full confidence the United States will meet its debt obligations.  Again, the United States is not Argentina.  If we submit a plan to reduce our national debt to reasonable levels, the international community will be satisfied. 
            I believe a concrete, rational 30 to 40 year plan to reduce the national debt of the United States will be a responsible way for the United States to reduce its national debt that still gives the United States the financial flexibility to invest in education and infrastructure.  It will restore any lost confidence in the United States from an international financial market perspective.  The United States would do well to adopt a logical plan under the general framework proposed in the this essay to reduce its national debt.                 








[1] An interesting point to consider would be in a hypothetical scenario where the United States has paid off its national debt, how would the United States conduct monetary policy?  Is there another market that is as deep and as liquid as the current US treasuries market?  Conducting monetary policy may become a much more complicated and tricky business.
[2] Given the fiscal challenges confronting the United States currently and in the future, it seems imperative for the United States to invest its resources as efficiently as possible.

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